From: Roger Voss 
Subject: SNET: Nyquist: A genuine threat of war?
Date: Fri, 26 May 2000 14:06:21 -0700

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Thursday, May 25, 2000
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THE FINAL PHASE
A genuine threat of war?

by J.R. Nyquist

To understand the present, we must understand the past. By studying what 
happened before the outbreak of previous wars, we learn to know the moves 
that will precede the next war. Earlier this week, presidential candidate 
George W. Bush suggested that there isn't any danger of a major war today.

In light of past events and recent events, he should reconsider.

On May 13, 1941, the territorial administration of Soviet Russia was 
changed within seven areas of the Russian part of the Soviet Union. These 
seven areas corresponded to seven of Russia's eight military districts 
(i.e., the so-called "internal" military districts of the USSR -- as 
opposed to the eight external military districts which were located in 
outlying Soviet republics). According to Stalin's May 13 order, 
responsibility for territorial security and administrative coordination 
within the seven military districts passed from the Soviet military to 
secret structures set up by Stalin.

According to Viktor Suvorov's controversial book, "Icebreaker," the reason 
for the administrative changes of May 13, 1941, had to do with Soviet war 
mobilization. Suvorov claims that the seven internal military districts in 
question had been ordered to convert themselves into army headquarters. 
They were then ordered to march west, toward Nazi Germany. In this event, 
something had to take their place.

Now consider Vladimir Putin's first major move as Russia's president.

On May 13, 2000, President Putin announced that Russia's provinces would be 
organized into seven administrative areas. Coincidentally, these areas are 
identical to the seven USSR internal military districts of Stalin's May 13, 
1941 headquarters conversion order. According to Putin's May 13 decree, 
Kremlin envoys are to be sent to areas conforming to seven of Russia's 
eight military districts. These envoys will have special instructions and 
special powers. The headquarters of the new envoys will be located in the 
same cities as the military district headquarters of the seven internal 
military districts.

According to a May 14 Interfax report, the leader of Russia's Communist 
Party, Gennady Zyuganov, immediately understood and approved the 
significance of Putin's move. According to Zyuganov, Putin's decree was 
clearly based on "a replica of the principle of seven military districts 
into which Russia is divided." (Actually, there are eight, but one is the 
Moscow Military District.)

Putin's 10-page decree on reorganizing Russia's provinces was openly 
advertised as a measure to correct administrative deficiencies in relations 
between Moscow and outlying regions. But the May 13 decree neither revokes 
the power of local governors nor changes any provincial borders. All it 
does is establish a system of administrative control parallel to Russia's 
peacetime military districts (excepting the Moscow Military District).

Putin's May 13 decree also establishes new regional capitals in the seven 
military districts, while giving Putin the right to organize special staff 
organizations in these districts. These staffs would be responsible for 
carrying out Kremlin directives and coordinating security agencies.

Now let us consider a second item of interest:

In 1941, before the outbreak of fighting between Soviet Russia and Germany, 
Stalin amnestied over 130,000 prisoners in Siberia. These prisoners were to 
be formed into 10 new divisions within the Siberian Military District. The 
Soviet 24th Army, in fact, was made up almost entirely of gulag inmates, 
mostly lumberjacks.

But there is more. Additional armies of prisoners were formed, and most of 
Russia's prison population was mobilized for military use during the Second 
World War. According to Viktor Suvorov, large sections of Soviet Russia's 
Second Strategic Echelon were made up of amnestied prisoners. And many were 
mobilized before the outbreak of hostilities.

Now let us consider a recent move of the Russian Duma:

On May 17, 2000, the Associated Press reported that 120,000 Russian 
prisoners might soon receive amnesty. The reasons given for the amnesty of 
so many Russian inmates was disease and overcrowding within Russia's prison 
system. This most recent consideration of amnesty is not an isolated 
instance. Last year, there were significant amnesties within Russia, and a 
very large amnesty in the former Soviet republic of Kazakhstan.

It is said that Russia has the highest per capita prison population in the 
world. Suspects often spend years behind bars without trial, hoping for a 
chance to vindicate themselves. The alleged overcrowding in Russian prisons 
is said to produce epidemics. According to the Russian Justice Ministry 
approximately 100,000 inmates suffer from TB. Suddenly the Kremlin cares 
about the health of these prisoners.

Are the amnestied prisoners being taken into the Russian Army?

It is not possible to say, since little information has been published on 
this in Russia. Rumors about amnestied prisoners going directly into the 
Russian Army were circulating last year, especially during the Kosovo crisis.

In a related move, President Putin has ordered that Russian boys, ages 15 
and up, will attend military indoctrination classes. Also, Russian girls 
will learn how to attend wounded soldiers.

In this context, this column has discussed Russia's stockpiling of 
strategic metals throughout 1999 and early 2000. In recent weeks, Russia 
has begun selling these metals to select customers. But these sales will 
yet preserve the accumulated total, so that a huge strategic stockpile 
remains. One has to ask: Why has this stockpile been accumulated? To what end?

And why is the stockpile being preserved?

Last week, the Sydney Morning Herald broke a stunning story about China's 
war preparations.

According to Australian intelligence sources, China is planning to blockade 
Taiwan's largest port sometime around September of this year. Australian 
intelligence learned this information from a shared United States 
intelligence forecast.

How does this relate to Russian mobilization moves?

Russia and China have become "strategic partners." In fact, they are acting 
as if they are in a military alliance against the United States. If China 
begins a blockade against Taiwan in September, a naval clash between 
Chinese and American forces is possible. If this clash should escalate into 
full-scale war, it is only logical that the Russians would support the 
Chinese.

In this context, it is interesting to note that Russia has begun deploying 
military assets to the Persian Gulf for the first time in years and plans 
to send an air army to Vietnam. Russia also intends to deploy a task force 
to the Mediterranean in November.

Meanwhile, in America, presidential front-runner George W. Bush dismisses 
the Russian threat altogether. This week, Bush said: "Russia itself is no 
longer our enemy. The cold-war logic that led to creation of massive 
[nuclear] stockpiles on both sides is now outdated."

George W. Bush needs to wake up to the geopolitical reality. The Cold War 
has not ended, and Cold War logic still applies. Russia's moves and China's 
threat to Taiwan suggest that war is a real possibility.
--RogerV


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