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From: BOBWORN@aol.com
Subject: SNET: Afterthought = How About $4.00 a gal for gasoline??
Date: 18 Feb 2000 15:53:15 -0500
To: BOBWORN@aol.com


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THE ARAB NATIONS WILL NOT TAKE KINDLY TO THIS ALLIANCE AND COULD BLACK-MAIL 
US WITH OIL 9or the lack thereof)  WHICH WOULD BE ECONOMIC SUICIDE FOR THE U 
S of A.
Bob

STRATFOR.COM
Global Intelligence Update
15 February 2000

Push for Peace Process May Tie U.S. Hands in Middle East


Summary

On Feb. 14, the Jerusalem daily Haaretz reported that Israel and
the United States are developing a joint defense pact. Under the
pact, Washington would actively guarantee Israeli security. The
pact is part of an effort to secure a formalized peace between
Israel and Syria. But to secure a peace agreement, the United
States may commit itself to a long-term policy that would undermine
its relations with Arab countries. This would ultimately limit the
ability of the United States to develop and maintain relations with
Arab nations.


Analysis

The United States and Israel are discussing a joint defense pact,
according to a Feb. 14 report in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz. The
pact would reportedly obligate the United States to defend Israel
in the event of attack. Meant to facilitate the stalled, formal
peace talks between Israel and Syria, the pact, however, could
leave the United States in an unfavorable position in the region.
It will effectively bind the foreign policies of the two nations,
strain Washington's relations with Arab countries and dramatically
limit Washington's future policy options.

The completion of the Israeli-Syrian peace process has become a
major objective of the Clinton administration. U.S. President Bill
Clinton himself has taken an active role in leading the
negotiations, inviting the leadership of both former antagonists to
the United States, mediating the talks and offering incentives to
Israel for a formalized peace agreement.

Apparently to move the stalled talks along, U.S. ambassador Martin
Indyk has reportedly proposed that the United States commit to
defend Israel, particularly in case of an attack involving weapons
of mass destruction (WMD) and long-range ballistic missiles. So
far, both the Pentagon and the State Department have refused to
comment on the existence of the negotiations. The agreement would
also reportedly place U.S. logistical bases on Israeli soil to
expedite U.S. military operations in the event of attack. The
United States, however, does not need pre-positioned supplies to
launch a retaliatory strike in the event of an attack.

Instead, the defense pact seems more like an increasingly large
package of American incentives meant to get Israel to keep the
talks alive. Unfortunately, the incentive may be more than the
United States can afford. The pact would substantially increase the
U.S. commitment to Israel's continued security, which now stands at
$3 billion annually - more aid than any other country. Other
reported initiatives include placing U.S. peacekeeping forces in
the Golan Heights and Israel's recent request for $17 billion in
military aid, including cruise missile technology. However,
Washington has been careful to avoid firm security commitments in
order to keep from antagonizing Arab nations.

The United States already provides Israel with aid, weapons and
technology but a newly formalized defense pact would tie U.S.
foreign policy to Israeli foreign policy. If conflicts between
Israel and Arab nations arise, the United States would be forced to
side with Israel - regardless of U.S. interests or relations with
the Arab nations involved. The relationship would not work;
Israel's foreign policy is often in direct conflict with the United
States. Israel is known to have sold weapons and technology to U.S.
adversaries such as China and Iran.

In the Arab world, Washington's working - if tenuous - relations
would be further endangered. Already, Persian Gulf nations have
called for the United States to lower its military profile in the
region. And Iran and Iraq have long clamored for the complete
withdrawal of U.S. forces. By building a formalized, bilateral
defense agreement with Israel, Washington ensures hostility from
Arab nations.

Forged during the heat of the Cold War, the U.S.-Israeli
relationship has since cooled. No longer of vital importance to
U.S. strategic interests in the region, the peace process has
become a hot-button issue in Washington largely due to the fact
that it's an election year with an outgoing president who wants to
leave behind a legacy. In the hope of formalizing an already
tenuous peace, Washington may undercut its long-term interests in
the region, and ultimately re-formulate its entire policy in the
Middle East.

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