From: "Roger Voss" 
Subject: Re: SNET: Y2K Cover for Martial Law in US
Date: 21 Dec 1998 12:42:49 -0500
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Here are some comments as to readiness of utilities:

My local water district sent out a flyer last week with an article that =
says they are replacing their software for billing, etc., with a new =
system and will acheive Y2K compliance in that manner. Well, neither I =
nor I wife saw that as the critical issue. What about Y2K bugs in the =
microcontrollers of embedded systems that process and get our water to =
us? So I called and left a recorded message at a number that was given =
for further inquires.

This morning a very nice spokeswoman called me back. She said that they =
were on top of the embedded systems issue as well. They know precisely =
what equipment could be effected. They anticipate problems with, but =
will do a test in April to verify. And if necessary that will replace =
componentry as necessary to acheive compliance.

So I asked her if water service would be vulnerable to a prolonged power =
outage, for say, up to two weeks? She said that they had adequate backup =
generators for just such a possibility. She then said without my =
prompting her with further questions, that though the utility company in =
our area is telling the public that there won't be significant problems, =
their expectation is that there will be outages (one utility's =
assessment of another, for what it's worth). The two week figure that I =
just said off the top of my head is what she implied in her answer was =
their planning horizon for being able to cope with an outage.

So, if everything she says is a straightforward assessment without spin, =
then water supply in my area should be okay -- for at least up to two =
weeks. It seems the belief is that the utilities can get the grid back =
up and going in this period of time. Hmm. Is hard to judge this. In =
normal circumstances of bringing the grid back up from outages due to =
storm problems, this would seem well within parameters. The question is: =
Will Y2K caused failures really be comparable to typical outages due to =
storms and such? Or will there be other factors that skew the matter =
outside of expectation -- the so-called chaos factor that the grid is =
rather vulnerable to? (Also, our generators are hydro. Don't know about =
coal, gas, and nuclear plants in other parts of the country. For =
instance, if the rail system is crippled by Y2K, will sufficient coal =
get delivered to coal fired generators? Different regions are likely to =
have variances in the risk factors to contend with. In some areas, the =
water treatment system may be so much more complex a problem to solve =
that they won't achieve Y2K compliance in time. You need to investigate =
as best you can for your area.)

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Here are some comments as to =
readiness of=20
utilities:
 
My local water district sent out a =
flyer last=20
week with an article that says they are replacing their software for =
billing,=20
etc., with a new system and will acheive Y2K compliance in that manner. =
Well,=20
neither I nor I wife saw that as the critical issue. What about Y2K bugs =
in the=20
microcontrollers of embedded systems that process and get our water to =
us? So I=20
called and left a recorded message at a number that was given for =
further=20
inquires.
 
This morning a very nice spokeswoman =
called me=20
back. She said that they were on top of the embedded systems issue as =
well. They=20
know precisely what equipment could be effected. They anticipate =
problems with,=20
but will do a test in April to verify. And if necessary that will =
replace=20
componentry as necessary to acheive compliance.
 
So I asked her if water service =
would be=20
vulnerable to a prolonged power outage, for say, up to two weeks? She =
said that=20
they had adequate backup generators for just such a possibility. She =
then said=20
without my prompting her with further questions, that though the utility =
company=20
in our area is telling the public that there won't be significant =
problems,=20
their expectation is that there will be outages (one utility's =
assessment of=20
another, for what it's worth). The two week figure that I just said off =
the top=20
of my head is what she implied in her answer was their planning horizon =
for=20
being able to cope with an outage.
 
So, if everything she says is a =
straightforward=20
assessment without spin, then water supply in my area should be okay -- =
for at=20
least up to two weeks. It seems =
the belief is=20
that the utilities can get the grid back up and going in this period of =
time.=20
Hmm. Is hard to judge this. In normal circumstances of bringing the grid =
back up=20
from outages due to storm problems, this would seem well within =
parameters. The=20
question is: Will Y2K caused failures really be comparable to typical =
outages=20
due to storms and such? Or will there be other factors that skew the =
matter=20
outside of expectation -- the so-called chaos factor that the grid is =
rather=20
vulnerable to? (Also, our generators are hydro. Don't know about coal, =
gas, and=20
nuclear plants in other parts of the country. For instance, if the rail =
system=20
is crippled by Y2K, will sufficient coal get delivered to coal fired =
generators?=20
Different regions are likely to have variances in the risk factors to =
contend=20
with. In some areas, the water treatment system may be so much more =
complex a=20
problem to solve that they won't achieve Y2K compliance in time. You =
need to=20
investigate as best you can for your area.)

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->  Posted by: "Roger Voss"